Career Fan Gain Is Solved
Thanks to work by @Moxayoru and @Werseter on the Hakuraku Discord, a precise formula for fans gained from career races has been found.
There is no random component to fan gain, except insofar as the race itself is random. It is now known to be entirely determined by five factors:
- Base fans, according to the race and finish placement.
- Fan bonus from support cards.
- Margin of the win, or margin behind the winner if the player's trainee did not win.
- Number of skills the trainee activated during the race.
- In Trackblazer/MANT, use of glowsticks.
The identified formula perfectly fits hundreds of recorded career races, including losses. These results have important implications both for fan runs and for low fan bonus decks for which debut can fall short of fan requirements for early career goals.
§ Calculate Fans
This tool will calculate your exact fan gain from a race. Use the fan value displayed in the race selection menu for the Race Fans field.
§ Base Fans
Base fans is a parameter per race and finish placement, defined in master data. The number shown in the career race selection menu is the base fans for first place. While it is defined separately for each race and finish order, every race currently follows the same curve for all placements, up to rounding.
| Placement | Fan Ratio |
|---|---|
| 1 | 100% |
| 2 | 40% |
| 3 | 25% |
| 4 | 15% |
| 5 | 10% |
| 6 | 9% |
| 7 | 8% |
| 8 | 7% |
| 9 | 6% |
| 10 | 5% |
| 11 | 4% |
| 12 | 3% |
| 13 | 2.5% |
| 14 | 2% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 1% |
| 17 | 1% |
| 18 | 1% |
§ Fans from Margin
When the trainee places in the top five, she receives a bonus percentage of base fans according to the finish margin.
The bonus depends on whether the trainee won the race. If so, it is calculated by her margin versus second place. Otherwise, her total margin behind the winner is used. If she did not place in the top five, then she gains no fans from margin.
| Actual Margin Within | Bonus for Winner | Bonus for Podium |
|---|---|---|
| Nose – 3/4 L | 0% | 9% |
| 1 L – 2.5 L | 2% | 6% |
| 3 L – 4 L | 4% | 4% |
| 5 L – 6 L | 6% | 2% |
| 7L – distance | 9% | 0% |
§ Fans from Skill Activations
The trainee receives a bonus percentage of base fans according to the number of skills she activated during the race.
| Activated Skills | Bonus |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0% |
| 1-3 | 2% |
| 4-6 | 3% |
| 7-9 | 5% |
| 10+ | 8% |
§ Calculation Order and Rounding
The calculation is perfomed as if in the following order.
- Look up base fans for the race and placement. This value is always an integer.
- Calculate fans from win margin as a proportion of base fans and round down.
- Calculate fans from skill activation count as a proportion of base fans and round down.
- Calculate the sum of base fans, win margin fans, and skill activation fans.
- Apply fan bonus to the sum in single-precision floating point, without otherwise rounding.
- Round to five significant figures with halfway cases rounded up, then round down. Examples are useful here.
- 700 base plus 14 from margin with 88% fan bonus = 714×1.88 = 1342.32, rounded to five significant figures becomes 1342.3, rounded down to 1342.
- 10500 base plus 210 from margin with 105% fan bonus = 10710×2.05 = 21955.5, rounded to five significant figures becomes 21956, rounded down to 21956.
- 100 base fans plus 2 fans from skills with 88% fan bonus = 102×1.88 = 191.76, rounded to five significant figures becomes 191.76, rounded down to 191.
- (Trackblazer/MANT) If glowsticks were used for the race, apply their multiplier and round down.
§ Data
The data for this research comes from 325 races and fan results dumped using Umadump. The races come from careers run between 19 Aug and 18 Oct 2026. These careers include fan bonus values of 50, 55, 65, 70, 80, 88, and 105. The identified formula predicts the actual fan gain perfectly for all of the races. You can view the data.